New research by the Monitoring The Future project at the University of Michigan shows that substance use by US youth is on the decline, continuing a trend noted in the first two years of COVID.
According to the University of Michigan's communications office (Missing rebound: Youth drug use defies expectations, continues historic decline, Michigan News, Office of the VIce President for Communications, University of Michigan, Dec. 17, 2024):
- "For alcohol, significant decreases in 12th and 10th grades continued a long-standing decline that began in the late 1990s. In 2024, 42% of 12th graders reported using alcohol in the past 12 months, a substantial drop from 75% in 1997. Among 10th graders, the percentage fell to 26% from 65% in 1997; among eighth graders, it dropped to 13% from 46% in 1997.
- "For marijuana, decreases in use among students are a more recent development. In all three grades, the percentage who used marijuana in the past 12 months hovered within a tight window of just a few percentage points in the 20 years from 2000 to 2020. In 2021, the first year surveyed after the pandemic onset, substantial declines in marijuana use took place in all three grades. In 12th and 10th grades, these declines have since continued, and past 12-month use levels in 2024 were the lowest in the past three decades, at 26% and 16%, respectively. In eighth grade, the percentage in 2024 was 7%, the same for the past four years after dropping from a pre-pandemic level of 11% in 2020.
- "For nicotine vaping, the 2024 declines continue a 180-degree turn centered around the pandemic onset. Before the pandemic, use levels surged from 2017 to 2019 and then held steady in 2020 (before the pandemic onset). Large declines took place during the pandemic, and these declines have since continued to the point where the 2024 levels for the past 12 months of nicotine vaping are close to where they started in 2017, the first year that questions on nicotine vaping were included on the survey. Specifically, past 12-month use was 21% in 12th grade (compared to 35% in 2020 and 19% in 2017), 15% in 10th grade (compared to 31% in 2020 and 16% in 2017) and 10% in eighth grade (compared to 17% in 2020 and 10% in 2017)."
In contrast, the number of young people who are abstaining from substances continues to climb. According to the release:
"The number of students who abstained from drug use reached record levels in 2024, with abstention defined as no past 30-day use of alcohol, marijuana or nicotine cigarettes or e-cigarettes.
"The percentage of students who abstained from the use of these drugs in 2024 was 67% in 12th grade (compared to 53% in 2017 when it was first measured), 80% in 10th grade (compared to 69% in 2017) and 90% in eighth grade (compared to 87% in 2017). The increases in abstention from 2023 to 2024 were statistically significant in the 12th and 10th grades."
The researchers are particularly interested in determining whether such reductions could be self-sustaining. The release notes:
"The continued declines in adolescent drug use since the pandemic raise important policy and research questions. They suggest that a delay in drug use initiation during adolescence could potentially lower substance use trajectories over a lifetime, Miech says.
"Such a delay, he says, may prevent youth from associating with drug-using peer groups that encourage continued use and may forestall biological processes that contribute to the development of addiction."
The new report, Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use, 1975–2024: Overview and detailed results for secondary school students, can be downloaded from the Monitoring the Future site. At the time of this writing (Dec. 18, 2024), only a partial version of the report is available. The full report is projected to be released in May 2025.
